Battles in Oyo state (Who will oyo state elect)

As the D-day knocks and the election is a question of days, the people of Oyo State have been bombarded with a lot of opinion polls on who is the next landlord at Agodi? It’s polls galore. One can predict that as the elections approach, there will be more of these “scientific” opinion polls to be circulated by politicians who are keen about winning the election at all costs.
BY April 11, people of Oyo state will go to the  polls to elect the person that will govern the state for the next four years. Although fifteen political parties are fielding candidates for the gubernatorial  election, the two parties to watch are the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP (Senator Teslim Folarin)  and the All Progressives Congress, APC (Governor Ajimobi) and their candidates. However others parties to watch are Accord party for former Governor 'Senator Ladoja', Labour party for also former Governor 'Alao Akala' and the fast rising in the state is the SDP Party 'Mr Seyi  Makinde' popularly known as Omituntun. However, some factors are emerging that may influence the outcome of the Gubernatorial election in different part of the state.
Oyo state has the largest voting population in the South West region, and Ibadan which is the capital of the state is  described as the swing zone or the beautiful pride in the forthcoming election. Analysts are of the views that whoever gets bloc votes from Ibadan is most likely to win the election.

Ladoja/Accord Party Factor

Senator Rashid Ladoja, former governor of the state is certainly the greatest mobilizer and crowd puller in the state today. He is just not popular, he is well loved by the masses. Curiously, he is vying for the governorship of the state on the platform of Accord Party, a party he nursed and nurtured to life in the state. Observers believed his relationship with the masses and how he treated the workers could pave way for him come saturday. Senator Ladoja has demonstrated in 2011 gubernatorial election result that he’s a man to beat in Ibadanland, where he garnered two hundred and seven thousand, three hundred and eight (207,308) votes. In other zones of the state, Ibarapa, Oyo, Ogbomosho, Oke-Ogun and Oyo, his performance were nothing but  woeful. In other parts of Oyo, Senator Ladoja had less than 70,000 votes.
The present predicament of the Accord Party is the gale of defection by the aspirants, who failed to get the party’s ticket. Accord Party had two hundred and forty-one (241) aspirants majority of whom have left the party today.

Seyi Makinde/ SDP Party Factor

Seyi Makinde, the ebullient, rich Governorship candidate of the Social Democratic Party SDP is a new blood to the system and also interested in Governing the state. Makinde emerged the gubernatorial candidate of the social Democratic Party (SDP). Makinde is from Ibadan North East, the “Headquarters” of Accord Party. It will take a lot of efforts for the Accord Party not to lose voters to Makinde given his resources and philanthropy.
Apart from the fact that SDP at the national level are just coming back,However, it was seen as a moderate party with a flavor for young radical intellectuals and socialists. In its manifesto, it called for concerted efforts to improve the people's welfare and fight for social justice and Makinde is said to be making that a promise in all his campaigns and people are also following is course.

The Elephant of Oyo politics

Adebayo Alao Akala / Labour Party

Otunba Adebayo Alao Akala has a long standing relationship with the people of the state. The result of the 2011 gubernatorial election showed that former governor Alao-Akala of the PDP now Labour Party has a stronghold in Oke –Ogun, Ogbomosho and Ibarapa. His major advantage is the style of politics of Senator Folarin, who has not ventured out of Ibadan to directly woo the people of Oke Ogun and Ogbomosho. Rather, he leaves the job to PDP leaders in those areas. These leaders may not be able to go against the wishes of their people as one of them is flying the flag of Labour Party. He first served as Deputy Governor and got catapulted to the number one position through some circumstances. Akala, a highly popular, sagacious, well loved and relationships friendly person would also want to give his all, The Labour Party’s other advantage is the presence of Ibadan Politicians who had defected from the APC to Labour Party before the coming of Alao-Akala. The present Labour Party in Oyo State is a coalition of Oke-Ogun, Ogbomosho, Ibarapa and Ibadan. It may be difficult  for other political parties to defeat Labour Party.
More than any other political party, Akala’s Labour Party, seems set to win the gubernatorial election in 2015. Will Boodaa Baayo enjoy an encore? in coming back to the oval office of the state either to finish what he couldn't or to make amends to what he did wrongly only time will tell.

Senator Teslim Folarin / PDP

Senator Teslim Folarin tactically supported Governor Ajimobi in the 2011 gubernatorial elections. The pertinent question that will support or give the lie to the rash of “scientific opinion polls” rampart in the last one or two months, is what has changed between 2011 gubernatorial election and 2015 gubernatorial election in Oyo State?
The great difference is the emergence of Senator Teslim Folarin as the gubernatorial candidate of the PDP. With his emergence, his godfathers in the PDP, who worked closely with him to support the incumbent Governor Ajimobi in 2011 election are now solidly behind him in the PDP. Thus, a setback for Governor Ajimobi as the coalition that brought him has collapsed.


Governor Ajimobi / APC (CHANGE)

With APC determined to hold on to the state, enjoying the support of all the first class monarchs including Alaafin of Oyo, Soun of Ogbomosho, Olubadan of Ibadan etc, as well as its recent victories across the state in the national assembly elections, Ajimobi may have little or no problem pushing over Akala on his way back to the Government House.
Interestingly, the four leading candidates – Ajimobi, Ladoja, Folarin and Makinde are from Ibadan, the state capital. While Ajimobi hails from Ibadan South, Ladoja comes from Ibadan North, with Folarin and Makinde both from Ona Ara. Akala is an indigene of Ogbomoso.
Against this backdrop, earlier permutations were that the votes from Ibadan would be shared among Ajimobi, Ladoja, Folarin and Makinde, with none of the contenders having a clear cut advantage. Not a few are also ruling Akala out in the scramble for Ibadan votes. The former governor was optimistic of posting a good showing, banking on the fact that his running mate, Sharafa Alli, a former Secretary to the State Government (SSG), hails from Ibadan.
But the massive support given to the APC last weekend by the people of Ibadan, with the party clinching all available positions, has may rubbished such calculations. If last election results are anything to go by, Ajimobi will mop up the votes in his native Ibadan and enjoy support from all other parts of the state. Highlight of some of his achievements Ibadan, especially spots such as Iwo Road, Beere and company, used to look like the proverbial Esu crossroad of confusion . Places like Iwo Road were Ibadan versions of Oshodi. They were centres of disorder which defied any remedy. But this is no longer the case. Going by this development and the people’s perception of his government not having a human face, Governor Ajimobi’s stronghold has been reduced to Ibadan South West, Oyo East, Oyo West, Afijio, Iseyin, Akinyele Local Government due to General Buhari’s popularity among the Hausa Communities and Lagelu Local government.
For both good and bad reasons, the people of Oyo have not been generous enough to extend a second mandate to any of their past governors. It’s either they are rigged or genuinely voted out of office or they are simply stampeded by local power houses too strong to be controlled.
However, as these politicians try to tilt their opinion polls in their favour, our people must not be deceived. They must be clearly educated by right data and analysis. The result of the 2011gubernatorial election in Oyo State is a good reference. It is a clear pointer to what the outcome of the 2015 gubernatorial election will be in Oyo State.

Remember #VOTENOTFIGHT #ELECTIONNOBEWAR #OYODECIDES